With just a couple of days to go before practice in Melbourne, the time for predictions has arrived. F1 Fanatic has a post asking some very interesting questions regarding the coming season and I got into trouble for daring to pick Heidfeld as champ this year.
Nick Heidfeld and the BMW F1.09
As I pointed out in my reply, yes, I am sticking my neck out on that one but any prediction for champ has to be a stab in the dark this time. Most are going for Raikkonen as usual but that relies on several factors that aren't decided yet by any means. It is reasonable to think that the Ferrari will be quick, judging by testing times, but it does not look like the fastest car to date; that honor goes to the Brawn BGP 001. And then there are Ferrari's reliability and pit stop shenanigans to consider - it is a bit of a gamble to bank on them being any better this year than last.
And then there is the minor matter of Rakkonen's motivation; has he really woken up and decided to give it a go this time? He may have lost some weight but that has little to do with attitude. Kimi has shown that you cannot rely on him turning up for the races and I think that may be a problem that gets worse, not better, as the season wears on.
That is even more likely if the car turns out to be less competitive than expected. If the team end up struggling to get on the podium and retiring with mechanical faults more often than they should, I can see Kimi becoming fed up and walking away. He has done his time in difficult cars and is hardly in a mood to deal with such problems at this stage.
As for those predicting a Button or Barrichello championship, I salute their optimism. It is a fair bet that the Brawn GP car will be quick from the outset but, even ignoring the result of protests from the others, the team will find it hard to keep it out in front. Reliability will be a big factor in the equation too, the BGP having had less running than other cars in testing, and I think it is asking too much for a Brawn driver to become champion this time. They will do well but not that well.
There is always that man Alonso to take into account, of course, and he is gathering his loyal votes as usual. That Renault is highly suspect, however, its testing times having been so varied; I would guess that the team will find it hard to keep up to begin with and not come good until late in the season. Fernando will gain a few surprise wins but I really cannot see him challenging for the championship.
Hamilton's chances have been scuppered by the weakness of the McLaren this year. Historically, the team has produced the occasional dog and it looks as though they have managed it again this year. The car will improve as the aero boys get to grips with the problem but not quickly enough for Lewis to stay with the leaders in the title hunt. He might win a few races late in the year but most of his time will be spent in proving that he can get a poor car further up the grid than it should be.
What other possibilities are there? One brave and romantic soul has gone for Rosberg and I must admit that I would love to see him do it. But the Williams, although quick, has not really blown the others away in testing and the usual problem of staying with the pace of development will probably see the team slipping backwards in the second half of the season. It would be nice to see Nico bag a win or two, however.
Another prediction that we must surely put in the optimistic or facetious category went for one of the Sebastians. It is good to see someone else throwing a cat amongst the pigeons but this one is truly wild. So far the Adrian Newey design has seemed little more than competent and even the over-rated Vettel will find it hard to squeeze a win out of it.
Which all means that I have to return to BMW for my prediction. My guess is that the car is better than we have been allowed to see so far and that it will have a slight edge over the rest, including the Brawn. There is a lot of optimism mixed up in that, I admit, but it is not entirely unreasonable. In fact, it is in line with what we have come to expect from the German/Swiss team - no flash or hype, just sound development of a good design and letting the results speak for themselves.
As to the battle between Heidfeld and Kubica, I have said enough in the past for my readers to know that I expect Nick to be the winner this time. The car suits him much better than last year's and he was never far behind Kubica's lap times in the 2008 races. Good speed plus a wily tactical brain will see Nick emerging as BMW's surprise star this year.
So my prediction is Nick for champ and BMW for the constructors' title. That is probably the kiss of death but hey, I have to go for someone.
As an aside, notice that no one has gone for one of the Toyota drivers as yet. The car has been fast in testing and boasts one of the controversial diffusers so it might have been a good outside bet to produce the WDC. The problem is that it is hard to see either Trulli or Glock as champion; they are both quick but the consistency is lacking. One can only hope that the team does well enough to keep them in the game in future years.
What it all amounts to is a very open championship. Any prediction has to be much more of a guess than in previous years, thanks to the changes in regulations, and the number of drivers to pick from is huge. Commentators are still going for the old favorites but my hope is that we will see a massive shake-up with some unexpected results confusing the issue. And it all begins in Melbourne in only a few hours; all our questions will not be answered immediately but we will have a better idea of how things stand after the race. Let battle commence!