The F1 world holds its breath as it awaits the WMSC's ruling on the double diffuser controversy, due tomorrow. All other news disappears, unless you count the story that Jenson Button and Richard Branson nearly resorted to fisticuffs in a drunken argument over the driver's girlfriend. So much depends upon the decision of the court that it is hard to ignore it meanwhile - it looms over the sport like a dark, Malaysian thundercloud.
Rubens Barrichello in the Brawn BGP 001
I must admit that I am amazed at the optimism of those who are expecting the double diffusers to be confirmed as legal. That would be reasonable, given that the stewards, Charlie Whiting and Max Mosley have stated that the diffusers are within the law; but it also puts a great deal of faith in the good sense on the WMSC. Perhaps I am being cynical but I see no evidence in the past of the court possessing such an attribute.
Take the banning of Renault's mass damper in 2006, for example; that particular tweak had been around in the sport for over a year, had been passed by the scrutineers any number of times and was used by many of the teams at various times. But the damper was banned as a "movable aerodynamic device", surely the most unlikely excuse in the history of F1. It was clearly a political decision, designed to handicap Renault and Alonso from proceeding to another championship and it was only justice that it failed to do so - although it was a much closer run thing than should have been.
So do not count on the diffusers being approved because they have been found legal so far. The decision tomorrow will be a political one, dependent upon how the FIA wants to manipulate the F1 championship this year.
Historically, we might expect that the decision would be in Ferrari's favor; since the red team do not have the trick diffuser, it will be banned. But things have changed somewhat over recent months, most importantly in the election of Luca di Montezemolo as head of the teams' organization, FOTA. He has done a good job so far, particularly in presenting a united front to the FIA, and Max, Bernie and crew have not enjoyed the resultant curb on their powers.
By throwing in his lot with the other teams, the Ferrari President has become a part of the opposition in the eyes of the FIA; the old relationship has gone, therefore. As a result, it becomes extremely likely that the diffusers will be allowed, not because they are legal but because this will punish Ferrari for its willful behavior and further attack the unity of FOTA. In a strange way, justice will be served, the diffusers being legal according to the letter of the law and all appeals to the "spirit" of the law merely subjective and irrelevant arguments.
It might appear that Ferrari's change of sides has opened up the sport to more reasonable and just government, there being no more suspicion that Ferrari's interests are considered first in all judgements on contentious issues. The sad fact is that the bias will merely migrate from being pro-Ferrari to a position of punishing the team whenever possible. Luca has done a brave thing and one can only hope that he sticks by it in the months to come.
The fact that McLaren are still being targeted by the FIA, in spite of the shift against Ferrari, is not a factor that weakens my view on FIA politics. The anti-McLaren bias was always much more a case of Max's personal dislike of Ron Dennis than any pro-Ferrari stance. Later this month we will see how this affects the WMSC in its handling of the overblown lie-gate saga.
In the meantime, we will probably have the right decision from the WMSC on the diffusers - they will be declared legal, the results so far will stand and we can look forward to a year of intense competition as more and more teams introduce their own trick diffusers. That is how it should be, F1 being a constant struggle between engineers to come up with the cleverest tweak to gain an advantage. The new order of Brawn GP, Toyota and Williams at the front will have to develop as fast as it can to stay ahead of Ferrari, Red Bull, Renault and McLaren and the racing should be intense and gripping.
The lesson is clear: F1 is best when politics does not interfere. Let the engineers do their thing, let the FIA allow the championship to develop as it may, and the racing will do the rest. It is not a sport that needs constant adjustment and change to be entertaining - it always has been the best show on earth and, when left to itself, it continues to be so.
Now please, please, let the WMSC make the sensible decision tomorrow...