Off season testing is never a reliable indicator of form but this year's has been even less informative than usual. With rain making a nonsense of the Spanish tests and the Bahrain test introducing sandstorms into the mix, it is impossible to get a feel for the potential performance of the 2009 cars. Bahrain seemed to indicate that the three teams that attended, Ferrari, Toyota and BMW, are very evenly matched but only Ferrari and Toyota have looked competitive with the other teams on the wet Jerez track.
Force India VJM02, Adrian Sutil aboard
Red Bull led the times while they were using the 2008 car but became unpredictable with the introduction of the RB5; the Renault has looked reasonable in the hands of Alonso and awful once Piquet jumped in the car. Williams has been more consistent than most and has set some respectable times. But McLaren has not set the world alight and the car has been slow at Jerez so far; the new Force India has been surprisingly quick and promises to improve at least to midfield this year.
It is all very confusing and allows us very little insight into form for the coming season. Usually we would have a vague idea of which teams would be likely to do well but this time the only thing we can be reasonably sure of is that no one has made a quantum leap forward. If anything, the cars seem pretty evenly matched and the changing order on each day's time sheet is probably more dependent on what type of test each team was running, rather than any significant difference in performance.
Overall, the team that seems in best shape is Toyota - regardless of venue and weather, their car has set quick times. That fits with my feeling that this could be a breakthrough year for the team - the car is going as well as it looks and the drivers are happy. Toyota's first win may not be too far away.
Perhaps the most welcome surprise has been the good performance of the Force India straight out of the box. The team had a troublesome first year and are due some good fortune - the VJM02 may be the car to do it. Certainly, both Fisichella and Sutil are enthusiastic about it and talking of finishes in the points; looking at the times (as few as they are), they could well be right.
Some of the improvement can be put down to the McLaren engine and drivetrain, no doubt. But the chassis must be working well too for so immediate a surge forward to be apparent. For the team's sake, I hope it lasts into the season and we can have a battle royal for those midfield places.
It remains anyone's guess as to which team will be the one to beat. The obvious choice, Ferrari, is not showing its usual pre-season superiority and McLaren are being accused of sandbagging, so lackluster is their showing to date. BMW have been disappointing but that does tend to be normal for them - strangely, they seem to think that it's the race that matters most.
New contenders include Toyota, as I have said, and Red Bull are looking good with young Vettel on board. Williams has impressed but memories of the same at this time last year dampen hopes to some extent on that score. And I do not believe that Renault have built a race winner either, whatever they may say. Alonso will make a difference as he always does, but I foresee another hard year for him in 2009.
There are still two teams to present their challenger for the season: Toro Rosso and Honda (Brawn Racing, if rumor is correct). The STR4 is a Ferrari-engined RB5, of course, and can be expected to be competent as a result, but the Honda could be anything from good to awful. Somehow I do not see either team rising above midfield, however.
This is vague guesswork and much could change before Melbourne at the end of the month. The only definite feeling I have is that Toyota will be a serious threat this year and I would not be surprised if they exceed their stated target of one race win. Which would be a breath of fresh air, at least.