If 2007 was the Year of The Rookie, this season is in danger of turning into the Year of the Bursting Bubble. Probably the only rookies from last year who continue to deliver according to expectations are Kovalainen and Kubica. Hamilton suddenly looks fragile, Sutil is finding it hard to beat his aging team mate and Vettel is being out-raced by Bourdais (face it - it's true).
Sebastian Vettel
This year's crop looks no better. Glock is not threatening Trulli at Toyota, Piquet looks very ordinary in comparison to Alonso at Renault. And my boy, Nakajima, has still to transfer his testing speed into the races. It looks as though team owners would still be best advised to prefer experience over reputation from other formulae.
It is interesting that both emerging rookies from last year, Heikki and Robert, had slow starts to their F1 careers and had to go through a learning experience before showing their true potential. Those who looked impressive from the start, Hamilton, Vettel and Sutil, are struggling now. It is tempting to draw the conclusion that adversity is the best teacher and one whose classes cannot be cut if a driver is really to make the grade in F1. Throughout 2007, the quibble about Hamilton's spectacular debut was that we wanted to see how he fared when things did not go so well; and now we have our wish. It remains to be seen whether he can persevere through his present ill fortune to continue as McLaren's prime hope for the championship.
Both Vettel and Sutil have the problem that they were over-hyped on their entry to the formula. Adrian caused this himself by beating one team mate after the other, but perhaps we should have been more aware of the dubious quality of those team mates before getting excited. Fisichella is giving him a more realistic bench mark to aim at and he is having difficulty in reaching it.
Vettel, of course, arrived with an impossible reputation. A couple of wet races seemed to indicate the truth of such vast expectations, although nobody wanted to hear that Liuzzi was actually quicker in both races, thereby proving that it was the car that suddenly came good, not Vettel. It is no surprise to me, therefore, that Bourdais has raced better for STR, in spite of his poor qualifying form. Once Bourdais has learned the trick of getting a good grid position, I think he will show young Vettel a clean pair of heels.
Not that being beaten by the Frenchman would do anything to dent Vettel's reputation, of course. He continues to be regarded as the hottest property in F1 and is suggested for all manner of better drives for the future. I just wonder how long it will take the pundits to admit that his bubble has already burst and that he really is not the new Schumacher.
That may have a lot to do with this phenomenon of the disappointing rookies, in fact. Support for F1 in Germany is dwindling now that Mickey has gone and the sport is desperate for a replacement. It may be no coincidence that the rookies who were hyped the most have turned out to be the biggest disappointments; Vettel, Sutil and Glock are all German.
It is foolish, of course. Superior drivers are rare and it is not often that one country gets two on the trot - just ask Brazilians how long they have been waiting for the next Senna. Right at this moment it looks as if the two drivers most likely to join the elite come from Britain and Finland - and so Germany must look to Vettel and forgive his every mistake or failure to perform.
For my money, it seems that the bubble has already burst. Reality has set in and it is back to experience and results when searching for a replacement for the old has-been you hired last season or the rookie who broke everything you gave to him. F1 has always been an unforgiving master.