After a winterlong drama of contradictory announcements and rumors, we approach the opening of the season still not knowing the answer to the question: will Honda F1 be on the grid in Melbourne? The latest alleged news is that Ross Brawn is only waiting for the green light to commence testing and Nick Fry has wandered off into the wilderness. Some team member has reportedly said that there is an agreement in place and it remains only for the lawyers to give the thumbs up.
It sounds very hopeful but I would not blame anyone for being a bit weary of the hope/despair roller coaster Honda have put us through over the last few months. Everyone and his dog have been mentioned as being on the point of buying the team and the Keystone Cops have been sent out regularly on dramatic but ill fated rescue attempts.
The only thing that we have learned through all this is that either or both of Nick Fry and the Honda management are so fussy about buyers that their criteria can never be met. Honda demonstrated this last year when they turned down an Indian offer to buy Super Aguri because the investors wanted to put Karthikeyan in the car - and they learned nothing from the experience, it seems. Nick Fry's apparent sabotage of the sale of Honda F1 by his suggestion of a management buy-out was equally disastrous to the process.
If we are skeptical of the latest rumors, I hardly think we can be accused of pessimism. Is this just more fluff designed to keep us on edge? I would suggest that one element of the rumors should give us at least a modicum of renewed hope. If Fry has really been removed from the picture, prospects must be brighter for the team.
There is a good chance that this is correct since it has been Brawn who has been huffing and puffing of late while of Nick there has been no sign. Whether Nick's reputation for incompetence is correct or not, the mere fact that he has been seen in such a light must have put the brakes on any attempt to cut a deal that included him in the management team. Brawn is respected throughout F1, however, and he remains the team's major selling point.
Even the fact that Brawn is still there is a good cause for optimism. He could easily have walked out at any time and been snapped up by another team. His continuing presence must surely mean that the team's survival remains possible.
I have not stuck my neck out with any dubious predictions for a while so it is about time for a new one. Here it is: Honda F1 (rebadged but with what name is anyone's guess) will be on the grid in Melbourne. The car will be pretty hopeless and the team will break up in a welter of unpaid bills and broken promises after four races. Jenson Button will take a sabbatical, Ross Brawn and Bruno Senna will fill out application forms for employment with USF1. And Nick? Oh, I think we will hear eventually that Mr Fry has been taken on by RBS as the ideal manager to guide the bank through the recession.
There, that should have helped the team no end. With my record on predictions, I cannot see how they can fail now...