With the season's midway point passed and the Hockenheim GP looming this weekend, the rumor market is working itself into a frenzy. As many are pointing out, much hinges on Alonso's decision for next year. Will he be at Renault still or will he manage to steal a seat at Ferrari or BMW? McLaren are out of the question, of course, and there seems little point in a move to Red Bull which is merely a customer team for Renault engines. On current form, none of the other teams are likely to be fighting for wins so Fernando's options are limited, to say the least.
Sebastian Vettel
The most likely outcome is that Alonso will stay at Renault for another year. The Ferrari team looks set and, if Heidfeld confirms his improved form in the coming months, BMW will continue with their present line up. Dr Theissen is saying nothing, as usual, but is obviously pleased with Nick's performance in the British GP. As was the case last year, Fernando will be forced to stick with Uncle Flavio.
That makes two of the top three teams more or less set and McLaren, too, are unlikely to go for a change of driver after only a year of their current pairing. Willi Weber has boldly predicted that Kovalainen will be kicked out in favor of Rosberg, but Norbert Haug's timely assertion that Heikki is a star of the future would seem to shoot that one down. All of the shuffling will take place amongst the lesser teams, therefore.
Nico Rosberg has been talking of his prospects and seems certain that he will continue with Williams through 2009. Naturally, he hopes that they will make a big step forward but is realistic enough to know that a move to another team may be necessary if he is to achieve his championship goal. His recent form has not encouraged team owners to buy out his contract anyway. Nakajima might move to Toyota but that assumes that one of the present incumbents will be dropped - and I suspect that Glock and Trulli have another year before they have to start worrying.
The one seat that we know will be open is Coulthard's at Red Bull. DC has backed Vettel as his replacement and this does seem the obvious choice. Interestingly, the man Vettel replaced at Toro Rosso, Scott Speed, has been giving his opinion of the young German driver.
"I have known Sebastian since he was a boy," 25-year-old Speed said in an interview with the Dutch magazine Formule 1 Race Report.
"He is a good driver and I wish him all the best. As a driver you need to be in the right place at the right moment, and at the moment he has that.
"He has of course been a bit lucky as well. All of his good results he achieved in the rain, and always with the right strategy by the team," Speed added. (GMMF1.NET)
One might have expected a jaundiced attitude from Scott but that looks a pretty fair assessment to me. With Webber in the other RBR, we will soon see just how good Vettel is anyway.
Competition for the remaining seats is becoming quite fierce, with newcomers like Bruno Senna and Sebastian Buemi lining up for whatever vacancies appear. Liuzzi is making his availability known and Fisichella must surely be in danger of losing out to a younger man. Honda may be on the look out for fresh blood but which of their drivers do they let go? Chances are about even on that one, I think. Piquet must continue his recent improvement if he is to stand a chance of retaining his place at Renault.
It is early to make definite predictions regarding changes but it looks as though most of the movement will be in the midfield. And that leaves the same old protagonists fighting at the front, business as usual, in fact. If there is anything that can unsettle this status quo (apart from rain, of course), it must be the regulation changes due for next year. Hopefully, one or other of the lesser teams will find a tweak that boosts them to the front unexpectedly. We have three top teams now - with a bit of luck, that could be four or even five...