Predictably, the gunfight at OK Corral began today with a lot of noise and smoke but no result. The FIA refused to move on the budget cap of £40 million and there will have to be other meetings as a result. All fired up from the excitement, the teams proceeded directly to their own little huddle to decide what their reaction would be to the intransigence of the governing body. It remains to be seen what comes of that.
Max Mosley
In the meantime, it seems Ferrari has started legal proceedings in the French courts to block the FIA's rules for 2010. As I warned, this is the big one and the teams will throw everything into the battle before leaving the field. They have no other option in the circumstances.
Contrary to many expectations, FOTA's unity appears undented by the known differences in views on the cap. The smaller teams may have signalled their willingness to enter the 2010 lists but they do so under the duress of Mosley's bringing forward the deadline for entries. They are as unimpressed with the FIA's handling of the matter as are the big teams; they sign because they exist only to race in F1 but they still stand with FOTA in opposing the introduction of the new rules without consultation.
The FIA had a minor boost in confidence yesterday with Litespeed's announcement that it would be applying to join F1. This adds to the number of wannabes apparently interested but hardly makes up for the prospect of the departure of the big teams. An F1 made up of three independent existing teams and a horde of hastily formed new ones has nothing like the draw of the sport today and viewing figures would fall through the basement.
There are two things that stand out so far in the battle. Firstly, it appears that Max Mosley wanted this confrontation; his actions, statements and their timing seem perfectly planned to bring about a war with FOTA and the big teams in particular. If he had been looking for a way to squeeze out the manufacturers as quickly as possible, he could hardly have done better. Now he has his war and we will know the result in due course.
Secondly, FOTA's shift in focus from the two-tier system to the governance of the sport shows how determined the teams are. They are no longer prepared to paper over the cracks this upset has caused and are now insisting that such eruptions do not happen again. You know and I know that means Max has to go - he has demonstrated too many times that his promises mean nothing and he cannot be trusted to adopt a more sensible method of government by consensus therefore.
The battle has begun quietly with a brief skirmish over the budget cap, predictably so, since Luca di Montezemolo was unable to attend due to the death of his father yesterday (and my condolences to him). Nothing can be decided without him, as Bernie will hasten to confirm, and the real struggle must wait for his return.
Luca is Ferrari, after all, and the other teams will follow his lead. But that does not mean that the manufacturers will stay if Luca is bought off somehow (and I doubt very much that he can be this time); they will leave if their demands are not met because they will no longer have a reason to stay in the sport.
And that is what Max and Bernie need to think deeply upon in the next few days: F1 without Ferrari is unthinkable, yes, but without Renault, BMW, Toyota and Red Bull, it will still be only a shadow of its former magnificence. The sport could cope were these teams to leave one by one over a period of time - a mass departure would be disaster.