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The Explosive Vettel

This week Formula 1 Linksheaven has a very good article on the rookies of 2008, Nelson Piquet Jr, Kazuki Nakajima, Timo Glock and Sebastien Bourdais. If you want to know more of their backgrounds, this is the one to read.

Sebastian Vettel
Sebastian Vettel

But a couple of sentences in the evaluation of Bourdais made me stop and think: "Another part of his trouble, in my opinion, is the explosive talent that is sitting alongside him in the team, Sebastian Vettel. Vettel is one of the hottest properties in F1 at the moment and Bourdais’ will be a baptism of fire."

This is accepted wisdom on Vettel but I cannot for the life of me understand where it comes from. What has the baby-faced Vettel done so far to warrant such an extravagant assessment? And it is not just a misunderstanding of his result in the Chinese GP - he was being spoken of in these terms long before that race.

Can it all stem from his excellent form in Indianapolis, his solitary GP for BMW? If so, it's a pretty flimsy hook on which to hang such an exaggerated reputation; Vettel qualified well, not far behind Heidfeld, but was less than a revelation in the race itself. The lad did well but not enough to make us think him anything more special than the other rookies of 2007.

Yet he arrived in the Toro Rosso team with everyone expecting him to perform wonders. I can only presume that this was the result of Mario Theissen having such high regard for his young protege - and the good doctor has been right before in his assessments of drivers. But, ultimately, nothing beats actual performance on the track.

So where are the results? For his first few races, Vettel was outqualified and outraced by Liuzzi; fair enough, we don't expect miracles and are quite prepared to give him time to settle in. To be an "explosive talent", however, surely a new driver has to do something a little beyond the norm? Never mind, we'll get to Fuji.

And in the rain, suddenly the Toro Rosso shines. Understand, it was the car, not the driver that came good - both STR drivers performed way beyond expectations in the wet. Had Liuzzi's strategy been as well managed as Vettel's, no doubt he would have scored even more than the single point he gained. And I won't laugh at Vettel's mistake in colliding with Webber, thereby ruining both their races. Everyone is allowed the occasional error after all.

It has to be the Chinese race, doesn't it? As the only GP in which Vettel has done anything remotely worth calling "explosive", Shanghai must be the foundation stone of his strangely exaggerated reputation. Yet it was another race where the Toro Rosso chassis confirmed its unexpected ability in the wet. And Liuzzi finished behind Vettel only because his tire changes were less happily timed than Vettel's; Vitantonio qualified ahead of Vettel and his fastest race lap was quicker.

I am forced to the conclusion that Vettel's hype is dependent only on a lucky result in one unusual race. It's not really enough to start calling him an explosive talent, is it? In fact, if we look with an unprejudiced eye at the results, it seems that the guy is no better than Liuzzi. And I think that is a pretty accurate reflection of his real ability - he is a competent but not outstanding youngster who will get better in time but is not going to astound us with brilliant performances.

The likelihood is that Bourdais will blow him away after a few races and swiftly become the number one at STR. At least Bourdais comes with an impressive record of success in other types of racing; Vettel has a very thin resumé in comparison.