Occasionally I read a post on another F1 blog that begs for an answer but then find that there is just too much to say. When that happens, I usually write a post here where I can ramble on at length and not be shouted at for hogging someone else's comments system. Linking to the original article ensures that it receives increased traffic and so everyone stays happy (I hope).
Brawn BGP 001, Jenson Button on board
Keith Collantine of F1 Fanatic has done it to me again with his question If Brawn GP really are that fast... and so what follows is my long-winded reply. I will start with Keith's suggestions as to the effect of Brawn GP leading the pack and then add a few of my own.
Honda made a huge blunder by selling the team over the winter. From our perspective, as F1 fans, this is clearly true. All that work and development of this year's car was paid for by Honda and now the company will not receive the reward for their investment. And yet, this ignores the viewpoint of the parent company. I am convinced that this was a business decision that still makes accounting sense in the prevailing economic climate.
Racing has always been important to Honda; it was how they gained notice in the motor biking world and they continued this when breaking into car manufacture. As long as they supplied engines to existing F1 teams, they had a reasonable return on their investment, especially as their engines did a lot of winning. It was all good publicity and helped to sell production cars.
When the board decided to extend their involvement into team ownership, however, the figures began to look a bit lop-sided. Running the F1 team proved to be extremely costly and their lack of decent results did nothing for their image. While Nick Fry assured them each year that this time they would win races, they fell to the back of the grid and became an embarrassment. With the sudden collapse of the car market, the thing became unviable; if the company was not to make a big loss in the coming year, it had to get out pronto.
Even had the board known that the 2009 car would be so good (and there was no reason they should continue to believe Nick Fry), I think they would have opted to withdraw. It was an accounting decision to stop the bleeding of cash and assist the company through bad economic times. The speed with which the decision was made and announced, catching even the team by surprise, shows that the board no longer considered winning races to be sufficient compensation for the cost of racing in F1. The accountants won and do not see their victory as a blunder - they see only that they have saved the company a lot of money.
Let us not forget as well that, if Honda had stayed in the game, the BGP 001 would have had a Honda engine. Whilst I don't believe the tales of the Honda being 60 bhp down on the best engines, it is still entirely possible that Mercedes engines and McLaren ancillaries have helped the car towards competitiveness. We may think Honda have thrown away a winner but it may not have been so good with Honda mechanicals. And how damaging to the company would another year like the last two have been?
Their livery won't stay plain white for long. Hopefully, this is correct. One would assume that it is easier for a winning team to acquire sponsorship but these are hard times and spare cash for promotion has become scarce. Much will still depend on Mr Fry's ability to sell the team and the Earth Dream debacle gives me pause on that score. We shall see.
Button versus Barrichello will be a fascinating battle. No arguments on that score, although I would expect Jenson to win. Rubens has to slow down a bit sooner or later, doesn't he?
It's terrible news for McLaren. Again, no argument. Mercedes may be heavily invested in McLaren but it is not unknown for an engine supplier to swap horses if they feel their original bet was the wrong one. McLaren have had long periods when they were not delivering the kind of results their partner was hoping for and there have been suggestions in the past that the Mercedes board's patience was wearing a bit thin. If Brawn GP is successful, the board will be tempted, at least.
And so to my own suggestions.
It's good news for F1. For over a decade, each season has amounted to a tussle between two teams, Ferrari and either McLaren or Renault. BMW improved the mix and entertainment value by getting close to the top two last year but they were always an outside bet. The sudden arrival of Brawn GP at the front can only create a much more open championship, especially as Ferrari, BMW and McLaren are not going to capitulate easily. If Toyota and possibly Renault and/or Red Bull live up to testing form, they could mess with the pecking order too.
Don't get me wrong - I am not suggesting that there could be a six-way tussle for honors this year. Invariably, some of the teams that have shown promise over the winter will prove disappointing when the races begin. But I would not be surprised to see four teams in the championship hunt, especially as regards drivers. And that has to be good for the sport; five or six drivers still in with a shout going into the last race of the season makes for a cracking good show.
It's good news for the superstar designers. I have heard it said that Adrian Newey is the last designer capable of creating an entire F1 car on his own and that, when he goes, we will be into an era of corporate designs for which no one man can claim major responsibility. But it seems that we may have overlooked Ross Brawn's talents in this area - he is an engineer, after all, and has wrought wonderful turnarounds in struggling teams many times in his career.
We think of Ross as the tactical genius and great organizer, rather than a designer, but he has had much influence over the design of the BGP 001. It is tempting to think that he is the one who has made the car so good, even though others would have had their parts to play too. Perhaps the superstar engineers have not quite had their day yet.
And, while on the subject, whatever happened to Rory Byrne? The last I heard, he had reversed quietly from the Ferrari design office and should now be more or less a free agent. Let us not forget his genius at Toleman, Benetton and Ferrari. Time for a comeback, maybe?
Update:
David Clarke has been kind enough to do a bit of research on Rory Byrne and supplied me with this link. It appears that Byrne was lecturing in India in October 2008 and is in the process of settling in Thailand (I have a vague recollection of having heard that before). His contract with Ferrari expired at the end of 2008 so this would be an ideal moment for a team like Force India to persuade him not to to retire. Interesting, n'est-ce pas?