Somewhere, I think in a comment on this blog, I mentioned that we will know when BMW have swapped their expectations from Heidfeld to Kubica: they will put Nick on low fuel in qualifying instead of Robert, who will have a more race-aware fuel level. It happened rather earlier than I expected - in Malaysia, only the second GP of the season.
Robert Kubica and the BMW F1.08
So does this mean that Kubica has become BMW's first hope for the race, while Heidfeld is given the chance to fight with the leaders in the early laps? To be quite honest, I'm not sure. The earliness of the change makes me think that the team is experimenting, perhaps hedging their bets by alternating the driver who gets light tanks in each race. This would make some sense as it would tell them if either driver takes better to the unaccustomed fuel load instead of his usual strategy.
The first two races have been inconclusive, however. Kubica qualified ahead of Heidfeld in Australia, as expected, but then had his race spoiled by an incident with Nakajima. Heidfeld, the man on the strategic fuel load, finished in second place. In Sepang, the German had the lighter fuel load but his hot lap was compomised by the famous incident with the McLarens. He started behind his team mate as a result. But the final placings were much as in Melbourne, except the other way around - Kubica second, Heidfeld sixth.
It doesn't really help Theissen to decide which of his drivers should continue to be the hare and which the banker. They seem to do equally well on sensible fuel loads, although Heidfeld is perhaps a shade the more reliable of the two when running lighter. And the puzzle is only made more difficult by Heidfeld snagging fastest lap in Malaysia, underlining the fact that his best race laps have been better than Kubica's in both GPs. I suspect that Kubica will be back on light tanks for qualifying in Bahrain, if only to allow the good doktor more time to make up his mind.
BMW must be quite pleased with their results so far, however. Two second places and a sixth puts them second in the Constructors' Championship, the drivers are 3rd and 5th in the Drivers' Championship, and the car was equal to the race pace of the McLarens in Sepang. The goal of a race win is yet to be achieved but the team remains ahead of expectations for this stage of the season.
The Bahrain GP is likely to yield similar results as none of the teams are able to make big changes to the cars until the return to Europe. From Barcelona onwards, however, the race to improve becomes imperative and this is where I expect BMW to shine. They are within a few hundredths of a second of equality with the top two and have a car with great potential for development. Throw in a little luck and that first race win should not be long in coming.