Now that Ferrari has confirmed Alonso as their driver alongside Massa for 2010, the silly season really gets going with rumors putting drivers "definitely" in one seat or another. In fact, only the Alonso move is certain and the rest is speculation, informed or otherwise. Much remains to be seen, as shown by Raikkonen's statement that he has yet to decide what he will be doing next year. I would guess that he will opt for some other form of motor sport, most likely rallying, and the second McLaren seat will stay open for more speculation.
Kubica's transfer to Renault seems a bit more solid, the team having said it will announce its drivers next week and Robert "95% sure" of his destination. That sounds like only the signing of contracts has yet to be arranged, unless both parties are thinking of something else entirely.
Nick Heidfeld, the other driver in the BMW/Sauber/Qadbak team that may or may not be on the grid has had his exit route closed by the rumor of the Barrichello/Rosberg swap between Brawn and Williams. Sir Frank's recent musing on the wisdom of pairing experience with youth adds weight to this suggestion. Quick Nick will probably stay with his old team, therefore, and that may be a better option than we realize.
Justifiably or not, he has been rated by most as slower than Kubica and he will not get a drive with any of the choice teams as a result. The new teams are unlikely to be ultra-competitive even if they make the grid in Bahrain, whereas the BMW team has shown itself capable of producing a race winner. With Robert gone and no other big name interested in his seat, Nick must be the team's best hope of success and he will have number one status in all but name.
Toro Rosso has said it will be sticking with its existing drivers (now there's a break from tradition!) but big question marks hang over Toyota. If the company gives the go-ahead for next year, Trulli is almost certainly out and Glock cannot be sure of retaining his seat. I would guess that the team will keep him on, if only for the sake of continuity, but it is difficult to see who would be right for the other drive. Toyota need a star, someone who will galvanize the team and ensure that the best is wrung from the car - but who is left, if Alonso is at Ferrari and Raikkonen back with McLaren?
Vettel would do but he has Red Bull written all over him and Webber will not move again before his retirement. Hamilton is owned by McLaren for the foreseeable future and Button surely has the sense to hang on to his Brawn drive. Who else is there?
It seems to me that this has always been Toyota's problem; they move too slowly in the driver market to ever secure the services of a driver with the standing and talent to motivate the team. That may be intentional, the company notoriously disliking individualism, but it handicaps them from the start. They will probably end up with another Renault outcast in the shape of Romain Grosjean.
The most interesting prospect is obviously the Massa/Alonso pairing; that will be hugely entertaining to watch. One might think the same of a Hamilton/Raikkonen match but I have my doubts. Whoever takes on Hamilton will need plenty of motivation and, as we have seen, this is Kimi's big weakness. Lewis has already had one Finn for breakfast anyway and will not be averse to another for lunch, I'm sure.
Like all seasons before they start, 2010 looks to be very interesting. Unfortunately, most seasons also disappoint and this could well be true of next year too. After all, I hear plenty of complaints about 2009 and yet it has been a year of constant upsets, amazing comebacks and unpredictability. Sometimes I wonder if most people only want to see their favorite team or driver winning...