I have come to the conclusion that Red Bull are the most fashion conscious team in F1, at least when it comes to engines. When Dietrich Mateschitz first bought the team at the end of 2004, it continued with Cosworth power for 2005. But the chance of a deal with Ferrari proved too tempting and the team contracted for the Italian engine in 2006.
Renault engine failure for Vettel in Valencia
But Renault upset the apple cart in 2005 and 2006, winning both constructors and drivers titles. Suddenly, the Renault engine was flavor of the moment and Red Bull quietly passed on its Ferrari contract to Mateschitz's junior team, Toro Rosso, and signed up for Renault power. Success still eluded the team, however, despite the growing effect of Adrian Newey's influence on the cars; it must have been especially galling for Mateschitz that his junior team defeated Red Bull in 2008, thanks largely to the Ferrari engine emerging as the most powerful of the season.
Four Renault engine failures this year have obviously soured the team's view of its chosen engine even further, particularly as they have all happened to Sebastian Vettel, their bright young hope for the championship, and word is that a deal is close to run Mercedes engines next year. The German engine is, of course, the one to have this time around, all of its present users having experienced impeccable reliability and power in 2009.
Does it not seem like a chase of an elusive will o' the wisp, the team forever grasping at the magic of the engine of the moment but finding it outclassed once a deal is arranged? The balance of power between engines swings rapidly as first one manufacturer then another finds a tweak that supplies just a little extra (yes, I know they're supposed to be frozen but what are loopholes for, if not to be exploited?). Mercedes may be great today but there is no guarantee they will still be top of the pile tomorrow.
It is all symptomatic of the way Red Bull goes racing, it seems to me. The attitude has been that financial muscle allows the team to have the best that money can buy and to assemble everything thereafter into an unbeatable combination. It has worked in the case of Newey and his staff, the RB5 being clearly one of the two best cars on the track this year, but engines have proved more difficult as fortunes fluctuate to and fro. The constant engine changes certainly looks like following a fashion that stays one step ahead, at least.
There are always good reasons, of course, and I guess that Renault's unpredictable relationship with F1 may have even more to do with the prospective change than the reliability issues. But it has to be Mercedes, doesn't it? No going back to Ferrari or approaches to Toyota for Dietrich!
It would be rough justice if Mercedes were to suffer a rash of engine failures next year (don't laugh it has happened before) and another engine entirely become the darling of the sport. In fact, I can even envisage a situation where BMW changes its corporate mind over complete withdrawal and offers its engine to customers; how delicious it would be if it turns out to be the one to have in 2010.
All dreams, I know, but evidence of my disdain for fashion too. F1 rewards those who persevere through the bad times and believe that their formula will win in the end. Just ask Frank Williams.