One item of news in the last week that was hardly noticed but actually has considerable importance was the announcement by BMW Sauber that their challenger for 2008 will be revealed on January 14th and 15th. The significance of BMW being the first to announce a launch date is that they are close enough to finishing the car to know when it will be ready.
Robert Kubica
This harks back to the team's statement that they were no longer developing this year's car and were concentrating on next year's instead. With their second place in the manufacturer's competition (alhough Mario Theissen considers that they are third, regardless of any decisions made in Paris) already unassailable it makes sense for them to switch their efforts to the future. Renault are in a similar position, with little left to play for this year and they, too, are now directing their efforts entirely towards 2008.
The two top teams, McLaren and Ferrari, can afford no such relaxation from the battle, as both are still in with the chance of the driver's title this year. And this might just turn out to be a turning point in both their fortunes.
It is an old adage that the team that is most ready for a new season is the one most likely to win races. It is rare that a team starting off behind schedule ever manages to catch up with the pace of development in F1 throughout the year; Red Bull, Honda, Renault and others have found it impossible to recover from poor beginnings to the 2007 season and those in the same position next year are likely to suffer in the same way.
What it means is that BMW and Renault will have a slight lead in development of their new designs over the winter and, if everything remains on schedule, they have a good chance of having their cars ready and raring to go when the new season commences. Ferrari and McLaren, however, are going to have to squeeze an equal amount of development into less available time if they are going to be as thoroughly prepared as the competition.
And this gives BMW and perhaps Renault hope of being one of the front-running teams in 2008. If they can get the design right and use their extra time wisely, they could leap the gap to the top and start winning races. Of course, much depends on that small matter of getting the design right but, considering how the BMW in particular has steadily improved over the last couple of years and how they have proved that they can keep up with the pace of development, it is quite likely that their car is going to be hard to beat in 2008.
There are other factors as well that indicate that the status quo at the top of F1 is about to change. Ferrari have increasingly appeared in disarray as this season has progressed, the tire debacle in Fuji merely the latest and most glaring of the errors they have made as a team. It is hard not to blame this on the personnel changes made over the last off season and, if that is true, things will only get worse in the future. I suspect that Ferrari is returning to its traditional state of chaos and their days at the front are numbered as a result.
McLaren is also likely to suffer from the huge disruptions and strains this year has heaped upon them. They have the worry of the FIA inspection of their new car to think about (and who knows what that unpredictable oganization will decide?) and the strong likelihood that one of their drivers will depart, leaving a gap that will not be easy to fill. Lewis Hamilton may be the greatest thing since sliced bread, but rumor has it that he does not have the experience yet to be much help in setting up the car. So the team will need someone with experience to drive the second car and help in its development. It remains to be seen who that will be.
On top of all that, it looks as if McLaren will be taking on the production of Prodrive's contender as well as their own. Although they are confident of having the capacity to do this, it is inevitable that it will introduce unexpected strains upon a workforce used to producing far fewer versions of their car. It begins to add up to quite a difficult year for McLaren, and that is presuming they get the design right in the first place.
My expectation is that next year will be a lttle different from 2007 therefore. BMW have an excellent chance of breaking through into the lead and this gives their drivers, Heidfeld and Kubica, a chance to really show us what they can do. Renault should be in there punching as well and Williams look rather pleased with what they have lined up for 2008. I would not be surprised if Red Bull make considerable progress over the winter too, although the other teams seem less convincing somehow.
If Lewis Hamilton wins his championship this year, I do not think he will have an easy defense of it in 2008. Things are shaping up in such a way that he will really have to prove his worth when his car is not necessarily the best on the grid. It seems to me that next year could turn out to be a classic - provided we get no more political nonsense to interfere with it!
Robert Kubica
This harks back to the team's statement that they were no longer developing this year's car and were concentrating on next year's instead. With their second place in the manufacturer's competition (alhough Mario Theissen considers that they are third, regardless of any decisions made in Paris) already unassailable it makes sense for them to switch their efforts to the future. Renault are in a similar position, with little left to play for this year and they, too, are now directing their efforts entirely towards 2008.
The two top teams, McLaren and Ferrari, can afford no such relaxation from the battle, as both are still in with the chance of the driver's title this year. And this might just turn out to be a turning point in both their fortunes.
It is an old adage that the team that is most ready for a new season is the one most likely to win races. It is rare that a team starting off behind schedule ever manages to catch up with the pace of development in F1 throughout the year; Red Bull, Honda, Renault and others have found it impossible to recover from poor beginnings to the 2007 season and those in the same position next year are likely to suffer in the same way.
What it means is that BMW and Renault will have a slight lead in development of their new designs over the winter and, if everything remains on schedule, they have a good chance of having their cars ready and raring to go when the new season commences. Ferrari and McLaren, however, are going to have to squeeze an equal amount of development into less available time if they are going to be as thoroughly prepared as the competition.
And this gives BMW and perhaps Renault hope of being one of the front-running teams in 2008. If they can get the design right and use their extra time wisely, they could leap the gap to the top and start winning races. Of course, much depends on that small matter of getting the design right but, considering how the BMW in particular has steadily improved over the last couple of years and how they have proved that they can keep up with the pace of development, it is quite likely that their car is going to be hard to beat in 2008.
There are other factors as well that indicate that the status quo at the top of F1 is about to change. Ferrari have increasingly appeared in disarray as this season has progressed, the tire debacle in Fuji merely the latest and most glaring of the errors they have made as a team. It is hard not to blame this on the personnel changes made over the last off season and, if that is true, things will only get worse in the future. I suspect that Ferrari is returning to its traditional state of chaos and their days at the front are numbered as a result.
McLaren is also likely to suffer from the huge disruptions and strains this year has heaped upon them. They have the worry of the FIA inspection of their new car to think about (and who knows what that unpredictable oganization will decide?) and the strong likelihood that one of their drivers will depart, leaving a gap that will not be easy to fill. Lewis Hamilton may be the greatest thing since sliced bread, but rumor has it that he does not have the experience yet to be much help in setting up the car. So the team will need someone with experience to drive the second car and help in its development. It remains to be seen who that will be.
On top of all that, it looks as if McLaren will be taking on the production of Prodrive's contender as well as their own. Although they are confident of having the capacity to do this, it is inevitable that it will introduce unexpected strains upon a workforce used to producing far fewer versions of their car. It begins to add up to quite a difficult year for McLaren, and that is presuming they get the design right in the first place.
My expectation is that next year will be a lttle different from 2007 therefore. BMW have an excellent chance of breaking through into the lead and this gives their drivers, Heidfeld and Kubica, a chance to really show us what they can do. Renault should be in there punching as well and Williams look rather pleased with what they have lined up for 2008. I would not be surprised if Red Bull make considerable progress over the winter too, although the other teams seem less convincing somehow.
If Lewis Hamilton wins his championship this year, I do not think he will have an easy defense of it in 2008. Things are shaping up in such a way that he will really have to prove his worth when his car is not necessarily the best on the grid. It seems to me that next year could turn out to be a classic - provided we get no more political nonsense to interfere with it!