Well, it has happened for the first time - a driver from Poland has managed to secure prime spot on the grid for a GP (no obvious jokes about "pole" from me - I'm waiting until they have an Antarctica GP for that). Congratulations to Robert Kubica and the BMW Sauber team! They remain on course to be one of the big three this year.
Robert Kubica
In fact, this showing is probably ahead of the expected schedule, just as BMW seem to have stayed one step in front of their stated aim for the last two years. This is what happens when you have a calm, realistic and methodical boss in charge of the press releases, I guess. Good for Dr Theissen, I say; it was great to see his enthusiastic response when it became impossible for anyone to bump Robert from his position at the sharp end of the grid.
It is unlikely that Kubica will win the race, however. The fact that Heidfeld's sixth spot forms the other slice of bread in a McLaren/Ferrari sandwich gives a better idea of BMW's true pace than Robert's undoubtedly low-fueled pole time. An early stop traditionally means a dropped position or two, Heidfeld's grit and reliability usually yield a couple of places, so we can expect the Beemers to be fighting for a podium spot rather than the win.
As a BMW supporter, I am allowing myself one more paragraph of crowing. The significance of Kubica's achievement is that BMW has demonstrated its ability to stay with the pace of development of the big boys away from home. In three weeks time, the European races begin and then you will see what BMW can really do. By mid-season they will have the quickest car in the field - or that's my prediction, anyway. Quick Nick for Champ!
Turning to the other teams, I suspect that Ferrari are particularly annoyed that Massa did not manage to grab pole position. They know that Felipe's best chance for the win depends on him leading the first lap and now he will have to fight for it. This is a circuit where he shines, however, and you cannot rule him out, even though he is clearly on a lighter fuel load than Kimi, as usual.
If Massa cannot steal the lead from Kubica at the first corner, his race strategy is compromised. Stuck behind Robert, he will be unable to build the huge lead expected and it is almost inevitable that his team mate will sail past at Massa's first pit stop. And that is ignoring the two McLarens and Heidfeld as well.
The likelihood is that the McLarens, Heidfeld and Raikkonen are on very similar fuel loads. If that is true, the eventual finishing order will depend very much on position after the first corner. I can see Kimi being able to make up a place or two in the laps following but not the others - they will probably circulate together until the stops and, even then, the order will probably stay the same.
Behind this group, Trulli and Rosberg will be close enough to seize on any mistakes but the rest are well back - a second separates Rosberg from the next up, Button and Alonso. Both deserve applause for hauling their uncompetitive cars into the top ten but they do not really have the pace to stay with the leaders. The lower midfield and the tail are made up of the usual culprits, although the Red Bulls disappointed for a change and Piquet and Nakajima faded after good practice performances.
So who is going to win? The smart money has to be on Raikkonen; he has the fastest car and will probably be the last to pit after the first stint. Hamilton always has a chance, however, and he is lucky too. I would love to predict a win for Heidfeld but it is not going to happen. Yet. Massa, Kovalainen or Kubica? Not this time, I think.