After one of the wettest qualifying sessions in years, the grid has been well and truly shuffled and the race becomes extremely hard to predict. Much will depend on the weather (light rain is predicted for tomorrow) but we are likely to see several drivers charging through the field to make up for mistakes in qualifying.
Sebastian Vettel
It was good to see Sebastian Vettel and Toro Rosso securing pole; everyone loves an underdog and this was a well-deserved moment of glory. If the track is very wet, they are quite capable of taking the win too. The only trouble is that the weather is almost certain to be better tomorrow and the combination of Vettel and the STR3 will no longer have quite the advantage they had today. I suspect that the cars that did best were those where a compromise between wet and dry settings had been chosen - with the track damp or drying, these will not be optimum and the ones who gambled on dry settings should come through.
That is what I think happened to Hamilton, apart from the tactical error of trying wets rather than extremes at just the wrong time. Looking at his performance in Q1, he never looked as quick as Kovalainen. My guess is that Kovy went for a compromise on settings whereas Hamilton felt he could cope with dry. Over-confidence? Perhaps.
It may be that Raikkonen went the same way. Certainly, he was struggling from the first, with the Ferrari's usual wet weather problems amplified far beyond expectations. And we must give it to Massa - he survived to Q3 and then put in a last effort that ensured respectability. Now that upsets the wet weather form book somewhat, doesn't it?
The BMWs disappointed me (almost inevitable after raising my hopes yesterday) but at least they are reasonably positioned if the track dries out. Rosberg, Webber and Bourdais were magnificent but could be in trouble on a drier circuit. And congratulations to Fisichella on getting a Force India into Q2 at last. We thought it would be Sutil to do it in weather like this but, in the event, he was strangely slow.
Regardless of the weather, I cannot believe that Hamilton and Rakkonen will stay in the lowly positions they earned. They must pick up positions as the race progresses, especially if it dries out. Whether it will be enough for them to reach the podium remains to be seen, however.
It really does look as though this should be Kovalainen's race. As quick in the wet as he has proven, he is also fast enough in the dry. Vettel may be quick when the track is very wet but, in the drier conditions likely tomorrow, Heikki's car advantage should tell. Massa could be a threat but has several cars to pass before seeing clear air; in the meantime, Kovalainen should be well away.
That is how it should pan out but you can bet that it won't. In races where the grid is as upside down as this, there are bound to be surprises. There is that first chicane after the start to be negotiated, for instance, and a track that is almost bound to be drying with every lap. Then overtaking skills will become paramount, with the accompanying danger of collisions. Oh yes, it should be a great advertisement for F1.
My tip? Well, you know me, the eternal optimist. I've been saying for ages that Heidfeld is the best overtaker in the game...