After all the discussion of rules, regulations and politics, it is a welcome break to turn to the final test sessions in Jerez, the Last Chance Saloon of McLaren, Renault, Williams and Brawn GP. Just in case we thought we had it all worked out after the Barcelona test, these four teams have complicated things by setting some unexpected times, casting doubt upon many of our comfortable assumptions.
Kazuki Nakajima finds it all very amusing
Chief amongst these has to be our certainty that McLaren will be in trouble in the early GPs. Each day in Jerez the MP4-24 has gone faster, apparently eroding Barcelona's 1.5 second gap between itself and the other cars, and today Kovalainen has put in a 1:17.946 lap, which implies that the McLaren is now quick enough to be a factor in Australia. In the meantime, however, the Williams has been behaving as if released from the leash, Nakajima throwing in a stunner of 1:17.494 this morning.
What can it all mean, if it means anything at all? The short answer is that we will not know until the cars hit the track in Melbourne but we can play with the known facts in the meantime. Nakajima's time was set in the middle of a 3-lap stint - a low fuel run therefore. That would indicate that Williams has not been trying for quick times until the last minute, preferring to get the car thoroughly sorted before seeing what it is capable of in qualifying trim. It is a very BMW-like approach (I am sure we have not seen the best from the Beemer yet) and chimes nicely with Williams' no-nonsense ethos.
This leaves the McLaren still half a second behind the Williams - an improvement over Barcelona but not enough to threaten the front row in the early season. There are factors such as track conditions and weather to be taken into account as well, so it may not be valid to compare the latest times with those from the opening days in the session. The present good weather in Jerez may well be flattering the last two cars remaining.
The two departed teams, Renault and Brawn GP, set some good times too, suggesting that Renault has now honed its car to be a worthy contender and Brawn still setting the pace with Button's 1:17.844 on Tuesday. The extent of the Brawn's advantage becomes staggering if we believe the team's assertion that they have not done any qualifying simulations so far.
It all seems to indicate that we have one team, Brawn, up ahead, then a huge bunch of cars in a grossly enlarged midfield, followed pretty closely by Force India bringing up the tail yet again. You can bet that there are still some surprises to come in Melbourne, however, and I expect that the midfield will break up somewhat, one or two teams accelerating to join Brawn at the front, while others fall away a bit to keep Force India company.
My guess (and it's a wild one) is Brawn and BMW in the lead with Ferrari and Renault at their heels, then Toyota, McLaren and Williams brawling in midfield. I expect Red Bull, Toro Rosso and Force India to be fighting for the wooden spoon, probably in that order.
Which all goes to show that testing is no substitute for the real thing. We have a week to go until the show opens in Australia, a week of withdrawal symptoms reaching a crescendo as we long for it all to begin. Oh, the trials of being a dedicated F1 fan.
Maybe Luca could get the FOTA/FIA war started to entertain us while we wait...