F1 Insight
Races

Friday Practice Sessions, Melbourne


The moral of the story is: be careful what you wish for. Sure, it is great to see Nico Rosberg and Williams leading the times and refreshing to watch the forgotten drivers suddenly vying for the top eight places, but then one notices the plight of the heroes of previous seasons. Why aren't they higher up the grid, we ask, even though we expected this.

Nico Rosberg
Nico Rosberg and the Williams FW31

Old habits die hard, it seems, and still we think that the Kimis and Lewises, the Felipes and Fernandos will pull a rabbit out of the hat come qualifying. On the evidence of practice, however, that looks increasingly unlikely. The double-decker diffuser is clearly a big advantage - when six of the best seven times are occupied by the diffuser bunch, it is impossible to think otherwise.

This is only practice and we can expect some teams to improve before qualifying arrives. No doubt the Ferrari boys will be higher than their times today have suggested and McLaren and BMW should make gains too. Even Alonso must surely throw in a few spectacular laps to move up. But the diffuser guys have room to improve too...

The man who stands out for me is Mark Webber. To be fourth fastest without any assistance from a fancy diffuser is impressive; and the performance of the other Adrian Newey drivers shows that the car is nothing special. Round one to Webber in his battle with Vettel (who seems to be drawn to grassy edges suddenly) and a hint that Mark will not just roll over for the German wonder boy.

Perhaps the most telling indicator is the position of the Force India drivers. Ninth (Sutil) and thirteenth (Fisichella) is considerably higher than anyone expected for the team and I think this shows that the teams behind them have a little left before they show their true speed. Come qualifying and we will probably find the Force Indias struggling to make it into Q2 again, McLaren, BMW and Ferrari having optimized their settings by then.

But the big boys are going to find it hard to get as far as Q3. Six of those spots are more or less reserved for the diffuser bunch,Webber and Vettel will probably account for two more, leaving only two up for grabs. There will be a fight for pole, that is for sure, but the battle for Q3 could be even fiercer.

As for that magic pole position, Rosberg is the obvious choice after his tremendous display in practice. I think Brawn GP have not fully shown their hand as yet, however, and I would not be surprised to see Jenson or Rubens leading the parade lap on Sunday.

All in all, we have what we asked for - a big shake-up in the order, new or forgotten names coming to the fore, and the rich and famous having to fight to retain their ascendancy. Let us hope that every race is as difficult to predict as this one surely is!