With most of the teams having announced their drivers for 2009, there are few imponderables left. So far Ferrari, McLaren, BMW, Williams, Toyota and Force India have decided to stick with their present line up, while we know that Red Bull will have Sebastian Vettel taking David Coulthard's place alongside Mark Webber.
Sebastien Bourdais
That leaves Renault, Toro Rosso and Honda as undecided, largely because Fernando Alonso has not made up his mind for next season. Obviously, the double world champion would prefer it if some miracle would occur that allows him to go to Ferrari, but that is just not going to happen; Kimi Raikkonen is over his mid-season problems and is now looking eager to prove himself over the next two seasons.
Honda have reportedly made Alonso an offer but it seems very unlikely that he would take this option. The Japanese company's F1 effort has been embarrassing over the last two seasons and it is too much to expect that they should suddenly be challenging for race wins next year. The smart money remains on Alonso staying with Renault, therefore, especially in view of their recent improvement in form.
That leaves a great deal of uncertainty at Honda. Conventional wisdom would suggest that the team keep Jenson Button but "let Barrichello go" to make way for a younger driver. Rubens is fighting hard to keep his seat, however, and there does not seem an obvious choice that would fit the job description of an exciting new driver with potential. Bruno Senna is touted as a possibility but any realistic assessment of the Brazilian must conclude that he really needs another year of GP2 before he is ready for F1.
Most likely Honda will continue for another year with their current drivers but I would suggest that it would be worth Ross Brawn taking a look at Sebastien Bourdais. The Frenchman has had a tough year with endless bad luck and a steep learning curve but he is now getting on top of that. His recent performances have been on a par with or better than Vettel's but STR are still undecided about his future. For Sebastien to suddenly jump ship would, at least, be just the kind of slap in the face that the awful man management at STR deserves.
There was a time in F1 when it was accepted that a new driver would require a year's experience before the team could expect his true potential to emerge. The current fashion for rookies to be thrown in at the deep end has disguised that principle and team managers seek Hamilton clones as a result - but the principle remains true in general. Bourdais should be the hottest property on the market now that he has demonstrated the extent of his learning.
That would be the kind of coup that I would expect from Brawn, the sudden announcement of a done deal with Bourdais while STR are still dithering. Brawn has been happy to continue with the existing line up for his first year but 2009 marks the time when we expect his presence at Honda to make a difference. A new and ambitious young driver is exactly what the team need to inject some enthusiasm and perhaps spark a revival in Button (who has become too accustomed to blaming everything on the car - can you see Alonso accepting such a situation?).
Whatever happens, it is clear that Bourdais is not particularly happy at STR. I have no doubt that he will continue with the the team if no other offer materializes but his best option would be to get out if he can. Once a team has shown its dissatisfaction with a driver by letting his contract wait while they investigate other possibilities, the relationship is never going to be right and performance will suffer on both sides.
Honda have nothing to lose by such a deal. They know that Button and Barrichello will deliver approximately the same results and so it would be no hardship to lose one of them. If they gamble on Bourdais providing some extra energy to the team, they lose nothing if he proves insufficient to the task - Button will still provide their bread and butter. Should Bourdais live up to the promise he is showing now, however, it could reflect very well on the foresight of Honda and Brawn.
All speculation, of course, and the likelihood is that Honda will stick with Barrichello and STR retain Sebastien, perhaps with Buemi as his team mate. That would not be a bad thing for Bourdais; he can grab whatever glory is going by putting his rookie sidekick in the shade. But we should not expect STR to continue their successful streak into next season. Force India are looking elsewhere than Ferrari for engines because the Italian team are behind in their development of KERS - and that will apply to STR as well. With Uncle Max seeking ways to standardize output from the engines as well, STR will no longer have the power advantage they have enjoyed in the last few races.
The new regulations for next year will undoubtedly create some shuffling of the established order in F1. The big teams will almost certainly remain on top but it is not impossible that a couple of the midfield runners suddenly become much more competitive. It may be too risky for Alonso to take that chance by going to Honda but, for Bourdais, it could be exactly what he needs.