Bernie Ecclestone is very busy at the moment, firing out statements left and right, creating a smokescreen to hide the the wear and tear becoming apparent in his favorite toy, F1. After trying to frighten the teams by suggesting their money from FOM should be cut, rather than increased, he tackles the looming possibility of shrinking grids (never mind the fact that he has asserted previously that there is no minimum number of entrants he has to assemble). Three-car teams, he shouts, that will solve any shortage of cars for the races.
Bernie's triple vision
All he has to do is ask, he reckons, and the big teams will supply third cars to make up the numbers. The flaw in his theory is then cleverly buried in more blustering about just how it would work - and that problem is that there is no reason why any of the teams should comply with his wishes. Particularly at a time when FOTA is locked in battle with FOM over money, why on earth would the teams so graciously help Bernie extricate himself from his latest difficulty?
Apart from the battle of wills induced by Bernie's combatative style of negotiating, the thing makes no economic sense anyway. The reason for shrinking grids is that it becomes increasingly difficult for teams to pay the price of competing as the credit crunch bites ever harder. To field a third car means more expense; not just the cost of making the car but paying the driver and extra team members to keep it running.
In easier times it might have been worth it but, now that teams are cutting back on staff members and shaving costs here, there and everywhere, it would be madness to see any savings swallowed up by running a third car. And for what? The only possible benefit would be to increase the chance of points - but that is only if the third car and driver are allowed to score - and how are the other teams going to feel about that?
Clearly, the idea is a non-starter unless Bernie can get the FIA to issue several rule changes very quickly. Max Mosley, once Bernie's lapdog, is unlikely to bow down to him on this occasion, especially now that it becomes obvious that their views on the future of the sport differ so fundamentally. While Max is set upon creating a spec formula and is already well along the way to such an abomination, Bernie wants to free up the rules in exchange for some form of commitment from the manufacturers. We all know that is not going to happen and neither is Max going to start a new war with the teams by introducing yet more rules just to suit Bernie.
So forget third cars - the idea is just more hot air from Bernie. The problem of shrinking grids will not be solved until the FIA obtains agreement from the manufacturers on the matter of customer cars. This should be the first item on the agenda for all concerned, it being the only way that new entrants will be induced into the sport in the foreseeable future. Without the legalization of customer cars, Toro Rosso will disappear at the end of 2009. Honda may still sell, although it is getting perilously close to the deadline without any happy news breaking cover, but for how long would the new owners continue if they cannot scale down the costs by buying in a chassis?
Williams teeters on the brink, saved for the moment by an advance of cash from Bernie, but with their main sponsor in trouble and vowing to look at their investment in June, their survival is anything but guaranteed. And now that ING have admitted that they are reviewing their sponsorship of Renault, Flavio Briatore must be losing sleep at nights.
The point is that F1 could easily lose a few more teams before the 2010 season begins. Those involved in the sport must surely see that the idea of three-car teams is far from an ideal solution and probably impossible anyway. Rather than duct-taping things together to keep the existing teams stumbling onwards, the governing body needs to be changing the environment to make it easier for new teams to enter. It has always been true that the manufacturers will go when it suits them - now is the time to prepare for that future.
To some extent, Mosley's rule changes have altered the environment to ease such preparations. His apparently pointless deal with Cosworth for a standard engine does suggest that new teams could buy engines at a reasonable price, as does the manufacturer teams' agreement to supply cheap engines. If the sale of chassis is also allowed, things would become easier still.
There are many groups and individuals who have been wanting to enter a team into F1 for a long time. What has deterred them has been the cost of setting up a complete operation capable of building the entire car - and the economic downturn means that this has moved from deterrent status to impossibility. The cost-cutting measures agreed between the FIA and FOTA are a step in the right direction but cannot reduce costs quickly enough to save the threatened teams. It is very likely that Williams and Renault will cease to compete in F1 after 2009; Toyota has one more year to improve or be axed. This is not a problem what will go away if a few more Ferraris, McLarens and BMWs appear on the grid.
The prospect of losing so many teams should scare Bernie no end. Shrinking grids mean less entertainment, less entertainment creates falling viewing figures. And that amounts to less money for Bernie's bosses to service their borrowings. We need less bravado from him and more good sense, if he is going to be a part of the solution rather than a braying nuisance in the background.
He is getting old, however, and I cannot see him changing now...