The two Toyotas made the breakthrough to the front of the grid in qualifying today, Trulli remarkably quicker than Glock in spite of carrying more fuel. Both are fuelled light and Vettel, in third spot and with enough fuel for a longer first stint, looks pretty threatening. It will be a close run thing, however; Toyota are very strong on this track and, if they can build a cushion in the early laps, they ought to win.
Jarno Trulli on his way to pole
The next four, Button, Hamilton, Barrichello and Alonso, are as light as the Toyotas and may find it difficult to stay with the leaders. That is assuming that the order remains as it is, of course, but we should remember that Hamilton and Alonso will have the benefit of KERS in the run to the first corner. Hamilton especially is in a good position to get amongst the leaders, having done an excellent job in hauling the McLaren up to fifth.
The two Ferraris and Nico Rosberg have gone on the heavier side and must hope that they can keep up until the rest pit. Both Massa and Raikkonen did well to reach Q3 in view of their extra fuel but Rosberg continues to disappoint in qualifying after showing so well in the practices.
Outside the top ten, the strategy is for long first stints, the BMWs in particular being very heavy. The two exceptions to this rule are Webber and Fisichella, the plan being to make up places early on apparently. With Sutil collecting a three-place grid penalty for blocking Webber in Q1, Force India have made Fizzy the hare.
This must surely be Toyota's best chance ever for a win and I must admit that I hope they manage it. It would be nice if the old warrior, Trulli, could gain victory here but Glock does seem to race better and is probably the more likely to come through in the end. The big danger is Vettel, of course - he is performing superbly at the moment and has the best fuel strategy of the lot.
It does look as though the Brawns have been caught by Toyota and Red Bull but one cannot rule them out. The team has Ross Brawn sitting on the pit wall, after all, and we all know his reputation for brilliant strategy. At a guess, I would say that Button will earn a place on the podium.
And then there is Hamilton. It is unlikely that he will win but a podium finish is not impossible, given his ability to press hard for the entire race distance. Alonso will give his all as usual but I think the competition is too fierce for the Renault and he must hope for points only. As for the Ferraris and Rosberg, it all depends on whether they can keep going. Reliability has not been their strong suit of late and poor strategy also seems to catch them out too often.
I can see Kovalainen, Nakajima and Webber making it into the points but much will depend on the fortunes of those ahead of them. And the BMWs must hope for plenty of retirements in the race if they are to feature at all. Get those upgrades ready for Barcelona, Dr Mario!