In the comments section to my last post, a discussion developed regarding two drivers in particular: Lewis Hamilton and Kimi Raikkonen. Everyone has noticed how uninterested in F1 Kimi seems at the moment and various reasons for this were suggested. The general opinion seems to be that the Finn may well retire at the end of the year, whether or not he becomes champion for a second year.
Sebastian Vettel
The story is very different when we look at Hamilton; two demonstrations of utter superiority in Britan and Germany have convinced many that he is the best driver since Schumacher and perhaps Senna. With McLaren apparently having caught Ferrari on the fast tracks and still better on the tight circuits, we could be in for a period of complete domination by Hamilton. And, if that continues into the new era being readied for 2009, this could be extended into a Schumacher-like series of races won inevitably by one driver and a succession of championships for the golden boy until he retires.
It may look unlikely now but consider how Schumacher's time followed on from Senna's great years. Perhaps this is a developing pattern of one driver in each generation being head and shoulders above the rest.
That is not a situation that I relish; cars were unreliable enough in Senna's time to prevent F1 from becoming too boringly predictable but they improved dramatically during Schumacher's reign, so that races and whole seasons became endless repetition. The main interest in those years was the search for someone to compete with the German.
If things do tend towards the suggested scenario, is there any hope for those who look for a driver to compete with Hamilton? Alonso springs instantly to mind as a result of last year's bitter battle between the two. But will he be able to keep up as Hamilton inexorably improves with experience? That is presuming that Alonso is able to find his way back to a competitive team and that, as we have seen, may not be easy if Ferrari are to continue their decline. Alonso seems to have resigned himself to another season with Renault, judging by his suggestion that a Renault revival will not happen until next year, but a Ferrari seat in 2010 may be too late for him.
Robert Kubica was recently the man of the moment, earning himself favorable comparison with Hamilton after his victory in Canada, but Nick Heidfeld's improvement must threaten Robert's reputation. If Nick can use his breakthrough in qualifying to equal Kubica in the second half of this season, it will be clear that we must look elsewhere for our Hamilton contender. Nick is quick, yes, but he does not have that extra helping of talent that Hamilton shows.
Nico Rosberg perhaps? He is out of favor at the moment but it was not so long ago that he was the preferred replacement for Alonso at McLaren, only losing out through his loyalty to Williams. The decreasing competitiveness of Nico's car has made him look ordinary this season but that could change in an instant if he were given a decent chance. So we can suggest Rosberg but it is a fairly desperate hope - I confess myself unconvinced.
Of the current crop of F1 drivers, there is only one who might prove a match for Hamilton and that is Sebastian Vettel. He is taking the Alonso route, impressing in an inferior car and the results begin to be delivered. I was not impressed with him at first but lately he has produced performances more in line with his reputation. So he is a possibility and we wait to see him in a better car before we can judge him with more confidence.
Of those waiting their turn at the game, only Grosjean looks to be anything special. But the same was true of Glock last year and he has been more a damp squib than a firecracker. If our long term look into the future is proved correct and Hamilton emerges as the man to beat, it is hard to see where any competition might come from. All things considered, I would have to say that Vettel looks the best bet at the moment. And that is a high risk gamble until we know a bit more about him.
There again, BMW might produce a blinder of a car next year and crush all opposition. Or Honda make the breakthrough after a headstart on development. Or Williams suddenly have one of those seasons where they get a massive advantage on the others.
I'm clutching at straws, I think...