Formula 1 Insight

Reflections on the Silly Season
01/10/2009

Now that Ferrari has confirmed Alonso as their driver alongside Massa for 2010, the silly season really gets going with rumors putting drivers "definitely" in one seat or another. In fact, only the Alonso move is certain and the rest is speculation, informed or otherwise. Much remains to be seen, as shown by Raikkonen's statement that he has yet to decide what he will be doing next year. I would guess that he will opt for some other form of motor sport, most likely rallying, and the second McLaren seat will stay open for more speculation.

Rubens Barrichello

Kubica's transfer to Renault seems a bit more solid, the team having said it will announce its drivers next week and Robert "95% sure" of his destination. That sounds like only the signing of contracts has yet to be arranged, unless both parties are thinking of something else entirely.

Nick Heidfeld, the other driver in the BMW/Sauber/Qadbak team that may or may not be on the grid has had his exit route closed by the rumor of the Barrichello/Rosberg swap between Brawn and Williams. Sir Frank's recent musing on the wisdom of pairing experience with youth adds weight to this suggestion. Quick Nick will probably stay with his old team, therefore, and that may be a better option than we realize.

Justifiably or not, he has been rated by most as slower than Kubica and he will not get a drive with any of the choice teams as a result. The new teams are unlikely to be ultra-competitive even if they make the grid in Bahrain, whereas the BMW team has shown itself capable of producing a race winner. With Robert gone and no other big name interested in his seat, Nick must be the team's best hope of success and he will have number one status in all but name.

Toro Rosso has said it will be sticking with its existing drivers (now there's a break from tradition!) but big question marks hang over Toyota. If the company gives the go-ahead for next year, Trulli is almost certainly out and Glock cannot be sure of retaining his seat. I would guess that the team will keep him on, if only for the sake of continuity, but it is difficult to see who would be right for the other drive. Toyota need a star, someone who will galvanize the team and ensure that the best is wrung from the car - but who is left, if Alonso is at Ferrari and Raikkonen back with McLaren?

Vettel would do but he has Red Bull written all over him and Webber will not move again before his retirement. Hamilton is owned by McLaren for the foreseeable future and Button surely has the sense to hang on to his Brawn drive. Who else is there?

It seems to me that this has always been Toyota's problem; they move too slowly in the driver market to ever secure the services of a driver with the standing and talent to motivate the team. That may be intentional, the company notoriously disliking individualism, but it handicaps them from the start. They will probably end up with another Renault outcast in the shape of Romain Grosjean.

The most interesting prospect is obviously the Massa/Alonso pairing; that will be hugely entertaining to watch. One might think the same of a Hamilton/Raikkonen match but I have my doubts. Whoever takes on Hamilton will need plenty of motivation and, as we have seen, this is Kimi's big weakness. Lewis has already had one Finn for breakfast anyway and will not be averse to another for lunch, I'm sure.

Like all seasons before they start, 2010 looks to be very interesting. Unfortunately, most seasons also disappoint and this could well be true of next year too. After all, I hear plenty of complaints about 2009 and yet it has been a year of constant upsets, amazing comebacks and unpredictability. Sometimes I wonder if most people only want to see their favorite team or driver winning...

Clive

Hezla
I find this year very entertaining, it is the political part that is not good.

I have read transcripts of what Kimi have said and I don't believe rally or other motorsport will be his first choice, but he wants a car where he can fight for wins not a middlefield car or playing driver no. 2.

McLaren with Hamilton might not be his first choice only the medias thinks so. I think Brawn could be better for him. I don't think McLaren can support another star driver when Hamilton is there. We all know how Anthony Hamilton trying to control everything and don't care about anything else than Lewis.

Today Toyota informed about a new contract with ZF Sachs so I don't think they will leave but the budget might be very reduced.
Date Added: 01/10/2009

Nick Goodspeed
It occurs to me that Alonso's sang froide, combined with Ferrari's ethics along with Todt as head of the FIA sounds rather ominous. If not deja vu, possibly Schumacher era revisited. I suspect Ferrari and McLaren back in their usual positions, at the top while Red Bull and Brawn will most likely not have the ace in the hole they did at the begining of 2009. I think McLaren would do well with Heidfeld beside Hamilton. I'm not sure Raikonen would want to return to McLaren, though perhaps with Ron Dennis gone, the pill my be more easily swallowed.
Date Added: 01/10/2009

Chetb
Do you guys rate Brawn will be competitive next year? They spent the majority of last year working on this years car, and the top teams such as Ferrari and Mclaren (both which developed last years spec until the last race last year) have pretty much already caught up a fair amount.

I dont really think BrawnGP develop fast enough to keep up.
Date Added: 01/10/2009

patrick
But haven't most of the complaints about 2009 really been about the near total failure of the "overtaking working group" to do its job and produce cars that can actually, um, overtake?

I've loved the unpredictability and varying form of 2009, but I can't recall many really good *races*
Date Added: 01/10/2009

verasaki
I don't think this is the first time Kimi has seriously contemplated leaving F1. I keep recalling something he said a few years ago, that (paraphrasing) he had to consider everything and really when the things you love about it are outweighed by the things you don't it's time to do something else. When he did that rally and after crashing did an interview laughing...maybe it was just because he's more at ease in his own language, but that was a Kimi rarely seen in F1 grid interviews.

I'm sort of finding this silly season a bit boring for some reason. Maybe it's all that slavering everyone is doing at the fantasy of Alonso and Massa taking each other out at turn 1, race 1, leaping from their cars and re-enacting Piquet and Salazar at Hockenheim. :) The Rosberg/Button pairing looks a lot more interesting than anything going on at Ferrari.

Good point about Heidfeld, though. Look what a surprise we had this season from Brawn and Force India (& McLaren & Ferrari, though not in a good way) .
Date Added: 01/10/2009

Hezla
Chetb: Yes, I do thinkBrawn will be a top team. The problem this year has been the funding, but winning the championship will be worth a lot of money and I also expect Brawn to announce a new big german sponsor for next year and don't forget Mercedes is now involved in the team.
When the current contract with McLaren runs out, Brawn will then be a Mercedes team. And most important Ross Brawn, he knows how to create a winner car.
I expect him to have made a improved version of Red Bull's pull rod suspension on the new 2010 Brawn racer.
Ross Brawn on the pit wall can also make the big difference.
Date Added: 01/10/2009

Clive
Hezla: For quite some time I have had the feeling that Kimi has not been enjoying his racing one bit. He puts on the iceman front but everything about him says he would rather be doing something else. That may be the effect Ferrari has had on him but it leads me to think he'll take the opportunity to retire from F1 at this stage. Whether he tries rallying or some other form of motor sport is a different matter, of course.

Agreed that the situation for the Toyota team looks more hopeful than it has for a long time.
Date Added: 01/10/2009

Clive
Nick: I'll stick by my original guess that Ferrari is on the long slide into chaos and will not be the team to beat for many years now. With Alonso there, they have a good chance of returning to form (especially with the political scene as you envisage it) but my gut tells me differently.

Mind you, my gut has been wrong before... :|
Date Added: 01/10/2009

Clive
Chetb: That would be received wisdom at present but I am not so sure. F1 is changing in ways that take it towards its past and, in that atmosphere, anything can happen. I doubt Brawn will come up with another idea that puts them ahead but I do think they can compete with the two big teams (as can Red Bull and Williams). In fact, it will be quite surprising if we return to the previous order of Ferrari and McLaren ahead and the rest struggling to keep up.
Date Added: 01/10/2009

Clive
Patrick: But when was the last "good" F1 race you saw, if we define the word by the amount of passing moves? We've been moaning about the lack of overtaking for decades and nothing has changed - the truth is that F1 races draw the viewers for reasons other than mere overtaking. If that's what we want, NASCAR has plenty.

Not that I am happy with aerodynamics making overtaking a near impossibility - but the cars are being changed gradually so that eventually, they'll get it right.
Date Added: 01/10/2009

Clive
Vera: Excellent point about Rosberg and Button. If Button proves quicker, does that mean Nico was never as good as we thought? And, if Rosberg comes out on top, does it devalue Button's talent to the extent that we still don't know how good Rosberg is? It could be a real conundrum!
Date Added: 01/10/2009

isde97
Note that aero is only part of the problem with the lack of passing. When you have brakes that will slow you from 200+ to 40 in 1 second and the length of a football field, it makes it hard to get ahead there. Plus tires with a higher coefficient of friction than velcro. Then add in the downforce. You could remove all the aero (the last bit) and it would still be hard to pass.

The lack of passing doesn't bother me so much. Passes are rare, but they are usually very cool when they happen.
Date Added: 01/10/2009

Pink Peril
I thought Toyota had already informed Glock his services were no longer required?
Date Added: 02/10/2009

Leslie
G'Day Pinky: Glock "free to find another drive". If Toyota keeps to its traditional management style it will never do well.

Brawn will continue to be a winning team. Rosberg/Button, hard to tell but neither sets the world on fire, like Heidfeld they are on it sometimes.

Williams could be the team to watch next season but if they have Barrichello and Hulkenberg don't hold your breath.

Cheers.
Date Added: 02/10/2009

Clive
Isde97: Particularly good point about successful passing moves being rare enough to be special.
Date Added: 02/10/2009

themark
Clive I'm surprised that you've done no speculating in regards to the future of Kazuki Nakajima. You've sided with him before. Does this mean your opinion of his ability has changed? I thought a move to Toyota would be in the works, but I'm not so sure now.
Date Added: 02/10/2009

Clive
Peril: Apparently, both Glock and Trulli have been told that, since the team has not been given to go-ahead for next year yet, they are free to look for other drives if they so wish. It is not a matter of them not being required but more that the team recognises that they need to know what they will be doing in 2010.
Date Added: 02/10/2009

Clive
Leslie: Totally in agreement about Williams. They will miss Rosberg if he goes.
Date Added: 02/10/2009

Lobo
"Lewis has already had one Finn for breakfast anyway and will not be averse to another for lunch, I'm sure."

I think this time he will have a run for his money. But first let's see if Kimi can find his way back to Mclaren.
Date Added: 02/10/2009

David
That Kimi only returned to some semblance of form after Massa departed the scene suggests that he was indeed relegated to number two position within Ferrari. I’ll not speculate upon the several reasons this may have occurred, suffice to say that Kimi will never function well in such a controlled situation. That Hamilton will retain number one status at McLaren is a given, thus I have to wonder why Kimi would even contemplate a return, and if for whatever reason he does so, we should not expect to see a repeat of his former stellar performance there.
"My only aim, if I am going to race next year, is to have a car that can win the championship. Otherwise there is no point."
I hope such a team makes an acceptable offer, for given a free rein and a competitive package Kimi is a proven performer, with several years left to entertain in F1. If not, we stand to lose him.

I doubt Alonso would knowingly accept a second seat rating at Ferrari. There is little doubt that he’ll continue to wring every last ounce of potential out of whatever car they provide, but even that may not be enough to attain a championship, for I too expect the days of Ferrari dominance are behind us for some time to come. I am more inclined to believe that his motivation came down to a Fisichella type compulsion to have a scarlet car feature in his legacy.
Date Added: 02/10/2009

Steve Ellis
Clive I'm with you regarding Ferrari. I think they are on a downhill trajectory. I thought that even before Schumacher left. Of course after winning five years in a row there is no place to go but down.

I see this morning that Toyota is trying hard to get Kubica. If I were him I'd stay with Renault. Toyota has never produced an exceptional car so I don't see them changing next year. Of course they have never had top tier drivers so maybe that is the problem.

I guess everything depends on Kimi. If he leaves F1, that's a very desirable seat. No doubt Rosberg is hoping along those lines. McLaren is better then any of his other options.
Date Added: 02/10/2009

Clive
Themark: Sorry this is a bit late - I missed your comment yesterday somehow. But it's a good question and the answer is yes and no, I guess. I still see Kazoo as having tremendous potential and I think he has proved that he can be as fast as Rosberg when circumstances are equal (note how quick he is around Suzuka this weekend - but okay, local knowledge does help).

But I admit that I have my doubts about his racing instincts. He has yet to show real appetite for a good scrap (he's a bit like Kovalainen in this respect) and seems unwilling to risk anything to gain a place or two. Whether this is because he lacks grit or is aware of the reputation of Japanese drivers for constant crashing and doesn't want to reinforce it, I don't know. Patrick Head has said he lacks confidence and this may have something to do with it.

On balance and if I were running a team, I'd take him on under the wing of a very experienced driver like Barrichello, then sack Rubens at the end of the year, promote Kazoo to number one status and tell him to win races. He has the speed and that might just give him the motivation.

Ofcourse, I know that isn't going to happen and his best chance for next year is to get a seat with one of the new teams. It's a slim hope, however, as they seem to be picking by nationality. You can bet that Kaz is a much better choice than some of the no-hopers who will have drives next year.
Date Added: 02/10/2009

Clive
David: I think that's a pretty accurate assessment of both Kimi and the situation. There is some talk of him going to Toyota instead of McLaren and I think that's more likely than a McLaren return. But I fully expect him to leave F1 at the end of this year.
Date Added: 02/10/2009

Clive
Steve: Not so sure that the second McLaren seat is at all desirable - Heikki would probably tell you it's more like a poisoned chalice. Alonso may be the best all round driver in F1 at the moment but Hamilton is quicker and gains maturity all the time. Against him, any driver is going to struggle, even Kimi. If Nico gets the drive, I can see his reputation plummeting in exactly the same way Kovalainen's did during his time at McLaren.
Date Added: 02/10/2009

Pink Peril
While I would like to see Kimi back at McLaren going head to head with Lewis, I think it is more likely I'll be watching him on the WRC instead. When he did rally Finland, he smiled 3 times in the post race interview & even laughed ! When did we last see Kimi enjoying F1 that much?
Date Added: 02/10/2009

Steve Ellis
Clive I can sort of agree with your assesment of the second McLaren being a poisoned chalice. I think that depends on the mental strength of the driver filling it. Could you see it being poison to a driver of Senna's, Schumacher's, Mansell's, etc. type of drive and determination. It's not suited for the weak but if you have the fortitude, you can do alot with it.
Date Added: 03/10/2009

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