Qualifying in Barcelona 2009 09/05/2009 Button grabbed pole position at the very last in qualifying for the Spanish GP today but, for a long time, it looked as though he would not manage it. Barrichello had been quicker throughout the sessions until then and Vettel seemed to have just pipped the Brawns for that coveted first spot. It was a very good lap that Jenson put in to settle the issue and it remained only to see the weights before deciding who had really come out on top.Rubens Barrichello and Brawn BGP 001Fuel loads and predicted pit stops can be found on F1 Fanatic and they reveal that the Brawns were a bit lighter than the Red Bulls this time. Vettel is likely to stop a couple of laps after Button and is well positioned therefore. Barrichello will pit on the intervening lap and could spring a surprise as a result. It will be a close run thing indeed if the grid order holds through the early laps.With the rejuvenated Ferrari in fourth, ominously fuelled to to run considerably longer than the first three and having the advantage of KERS at the start, things may not go quite as the leaders would like. The race to the first corner is going to be significant for the outcome of the race. Webber is in fifth and on the same fuel load as Vettel so he too may enter the equation.Thereafter the top ten becomes a mix of strategies, Glock and Alonso running light, Rosberg, Kubica and Trulli being somewhat heavier. The striking thing, however, is that the top ten have all opted for fairly low fuel levels although not as extreme as has been Alonso's preference in previous races. This looks like being a hard race with very small margins making the difference.Of the runners below tenth spot, only Kovalainen and Fisichella have opted for fairly light loads, the rest going for long first stints. Hamilton is heaviest and should make his first stop at about lap 33. None of them, not even Raikkonen, look capable of troubling the leaders and I would guess that the winner will come from the first three rows of the grid.In spite of all the upgrades at this race, it appears that little has changed in the pecking order, the sole exception being the considerable improvement in the Ferrari's performance. Massa did exceptionally well to put the car as high as fourth, but one can only shake one's head at yet another team blunder in failing to get Raikkonen out for another run in Q1. No doubt the idea was to save some option tires but the priority must surely be to make it through to the next segment of qualifying. I think the team is suffering from overconfidence as a result of their domination in previous years.There seems little to choose between the Brawn BGP 001 and the Red Bull RB5. Brawn's advantage has been whittled away and the cars are now very close in performance. All four drivers must be in with a shout of the win tomorrow. Massa has a chance of spoiling the party but will have to work hard for it.As I feared, the Toyota has lost a bit in comparison, leaving Glock and Trulli hoping that strategy will see them rise up the order. The team are going to have to be a lot more accurate than previously in the timing of their pit stops for this to happen, however. Williams have changed their usual strategy at last and both their drivers are going for long stints this time. Rosberg will have a tough time staying close enough to the leading bunch to make it count when the pit stops start and must hope for points only.The extensive updates to the BMW have certainly improved the car since Bahrain but they are not yet back to their form of Melbourne. Kubica in tenth, Heidfeld 13th, is not really where they were hoping to be and the introduction of a double diffuser, now likely for Istanbul, becomes an urgent necessity.Of the rest, only McLaren stands out as having lost ground. To be fair, Barcelona is not really a McLaren track and the team always expected to have a hard time here. Their improvements up until now have been the result of constant small changes and they had fewer upgrades at this race therefore. Even so, it must be galling for the team to be only 14th and 18th quickest, territory they have rarely occupied in the past.It strikes me that, while the early races have seen some fairly extreme strategies as teams tried to cope with the new order, Barcelona has seen a return to sanity and conservatism. No one is obviously making a wildly optimistic attempt at glory through strategy and I think the race could be fairly processional as a result, with each team quickly finding its level and staying there. That would be in keeping with the circuit's reputation and I think we must hope that the leading half dozen can put on a display to prove me wrong.Picking a winner at this stage is difficult. Both Button and Vettel look to be the best bets but Barrichello has to be in the frame too. Just to stir the pot, I am going to say Webber for this one. If it rains, I could get a lucky one!
Clive
Steve Ellis Still banging that Webber drum Clive. When will you ever learn? Maybe, just maybe, one day you and Webber will get lucky. But it better happen soon or "Golden Boy" will see him off! Date Added: 10/05/2009
Clive There are still plenty of races to go, Steve, and the battle between Vettel and Webber is far from decided as yet. We shall see, as I've said before. Date Added: 10/05/2009
Rob That Ferrari is mighty off the start, and on the front of the grid he should have an even easier job than in the midfield. Date Added: 10/05/2009
Timbo Good on you Clive - I'm glad you've got faith in Webber! I'd love your prediction to come true, but I fear tonight will be another Button benefit. Massa could play a spoiling role off the start, with KERS and a heavier fuel load he could ruin the party for those ahead of him on the grid. Date Added: 10/05/2009
Clive Rob: With the advantage of having now watched the race, I can answer that it does not matter how good the Ferrari is as long as the team retain its phenomenal capacity for blunders! Massa had a brilliant race, however, and it is a shame that he had so little to show for it in the end. Date Added: 10/05/2009
Clive Timbo: Spot on with all your predictions! And I was not far off with Webber, either - he put one over his team mate this time and came close to stealing second off Barrichello.Question for the day: Can Vettel overtake? ;) Date Added: 10/05/2009
Alianora La Canta Clive, the answer is: apparently not relevant. Strategy turned out to be the key to the race and Vettel's wasn't good enough. Maybe if a certain quartet of drivers had avoided contact with one another, this might not have been the case.Such is F1. Date Added: 10/05/2009
Clive I think the accident happened too far down the field to have had any effect on the strategy of those at the front. But it is certainly true that Vettel's strategy did him no favours. If Mark Webber could gain so much by running a long second stint, hindsight tells us that Vettel could have done the same. Someone in the Red Bull team was putting in extra calculation time, I think. Date Added: 10/05/2009
Alianora La Canta Clive, what I meant by that wasn't that Vettel needed to dodge through debris, but that the Safety Car which was called as a result of Trulli, Sutil and the Toro Rossos crashing meant the low-fuelled cars could save fuel behind the Safety Car and remove a lot of their original disadvantage. Date Added: 11/05/2009
Alianora La Canta Your point about Webber still stands, though. Red Bull, like Brawn, found out the price of split strategy today. At best, only one of the drivers can reasonably expect to prosper. This makes the approach only appropriate for teams that would otherwise expect a 50% chance or less of neither driver to prosper (which is why Force India uses it) or where a variable with a difficult-to-calculate effect appears (which is why the Safety Car led to the Brawns splitting strategy). Date Added: 11/05/2009
Clive Agreed with your summary, Ali. It is quite interesting that switching strategy worked for both Button and Webber. Does this mean that it is always better to go with a strategy formed once the race has begun to unfold rather than one set before the race? And does Vettel have as much cause for grievance as Barrichello seems to have?Probably, the answer is that, whichever driver comes out worst will have his gripes in the end. ;) Date Added: 11/05/2009
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